Evaluation of the effects of cotton cultivation on the supply and demand of water resources in the southeastern regions of Iran under climate change scenarios

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Phd student, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchestan, Iran

2 Assistant professor in Climatology, Department of Physical Geography, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran

3 Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchestan, Iran

Abstract

Agriculture is the largest water-use sector and water management for agriculture is complex. In this study, the effect of climate change on meteorological parameters was investigated by general circulation models under two scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 and the simulation of resources and demand points of the study area was evaluated using water resources planning and management model. To reduction the uncertainty of general circulation models was used from the ensemble model. The results showed that the amount of precipitation in the scenarios of 8.5 and 4.5 was projected 7.6 and 12.6% more than observation, respectively, and the temperature is almost constant. To confrontation with water shortage in demand sections, the management strategies were presented such as the increase irrigation efficiency, the eliminate unauthorized agriculture, the reduce water losses, and use water desalination. The results showed that the average unmet demand of the agricultural sector with the current cultivation and the cotton cultivation is 83% and 85%, respectively. The results of the scenarios showed that the lowest unmet demand has the climate change with the scenario of 8.5 and the current cultivation with the amount of 39.44 MCM and the basic condition and cotton cultivation has the highest unmet demand with the amount of 65.9 MCM, so the cotton planting increases water stress. This research helps for better management of water resources to decision makers of the study area.

Keywords

Iranian Journal of Cotton Researches
Volume 9, Issue 1 - Serial Number 16
November 2021
Pages 23-44

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