A Dynamic Analysis of the Impact of Climatic and Economic Variables on Cotton Yield in Iran: An ARDL Approach

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran

2 Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Iran

10.22092/ijcr.2026.136489

Abstract

Background and Objective: In recent decades, climate change has emerged as one of the most critical challenges facing the agricultural sector, significantly affecting the productivity of strategic crops in developing countries, including Iran. Cotton, as an economically and industrially important crop, is highly sensitive to climatic fluctuations and economic conditions. This study aims to investigate the short-run and long-run dynamic effects of climatic and economic variables on cotton production in Iran using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach.
Materials and Methods: This research uses time-series data on cotton production together with selected climatic variables (precipitation and temperature) and economic indicators (cultivated area and related factors) over the study period. The ARDL bounds testing approach developed by Pesaran et al. was employed to examine both short-run and long-run relationships among the variables. Additionally, the Error Correction Model (ECM) was used to assess adjustment dynamics and the speed of convergence towards long-run equilibrium.
Results: The empirical findings indicate that climatic variables, particularly temperature and precipitation, exert significant and nonlinear effects on cotton production. In the long run, rising temperature negatively affects productivity, whereas precipitation has a positive and statistically significant impact within optimal ranges. Cultivated area emerges as the most influential economic variable, with a consistently positive effect on production. The ECM results confirm the existence of a stable long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables, with an acceptable speed of adjustment towards equilibrium.
Conclusion: The results show that cotton production in Iran is highly vulnerable to climate variability, while land-use management and cropping policies play a crucial role in mitigating this vulnerability. Therefore, designing adaptive agricultural policies aimed at climate-resilient agriculture and optimising production resource allocation is essential for ensuring long-term sustainability.

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Main Subjects

Iranian Journal of Cotton Researches
Volume 14, Issue 1
September 2026
Pages 61-75

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