نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ، آزادشهر، ایران
2 دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ، آزادشهر ، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Background and aim: This study investigates the ineffectiveness of agricultural policies and their economic and social consequences on cotton cultivation in Golestan Province from the 1960s to the present.
Methods and materials: The research is applied-developmental in nature, employing a combination of field and library data collection methods. A mixed-methods exploratory research design, incorporating both qualitative and quantitative approaches, was utilized. In the qualitative phase, data were gathered through grounded theory and content analysis of expert opinions. Based on this analysis, a questionnaire was designed and distributed to selected farmers, who were identified through snowball sampling.
Results: Results from the structural interpretive approach, analyzed using the fuzzy Delphi technique and self-interaction matrix, indicated that among economic factors, modern irrigation methods and production sustainability were ranked at level 1, while economic welfare, infrastructure, land reforms, and farmers' income were ranked at level 2. Labor productivity, access to inputs, investment, and employment were categorized at level 3. Structural equation modeling (SEM) confirmed a positive and significant relationship between changes in crop patterns and economic outcomes (coefficient = 0.565). From a social perspective, variables such as increased crop density, reduced pollution of natural resources, and rural sustainable development were positioned at level 1. In contrast, social prestige, changes in agricultural perception, and trust in agriculture were placed at level 2. Social trust, awareness, water consumption reform, changes in land use patterns, and social participation ranked at level 3. SEM analysis further revealed a positive and significant relationship between changes in crop patterns and social outcomes (coefficient = 0.882).
Conclusion: Overall, the findings of this research demonstrate that agricultural policies in Golestan Province have significantly influenced cotton cultivation patterns and their associated economic and social consequences. Developing sustainable infrastructure and reforming agricultural policies could enhance farmers' livelihoods and improve production efficiency.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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